* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912011 06/05/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 29 33 42 53 63 69 71 74 73 67 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 29 33 42 53 63 69 71 74 73 67 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 33 40 47 55 63 70 71 67 SHEAR (KT) 5 6 5 6 8 10 12 10 6 3 8 8 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 -2 1 -1 1 2 SHEAR DIR 65 98 92 93 73 72 76 67 64 88 17 40 40 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.4 30.3 30.1 29.6 29.1 28.3 27.3 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 159 161 164 164 165 167 166 165 160 154 146 135 124 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.2 -52.7 -51.2 -51.7 -50.8 -51.2 -50.6 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 8 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 69 68 68 68 69 67 64 63 60 60 53 54 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 11 11 10 11 13 15 17 17 16 18 18 15 850 MB ENV VOR 28 35 28 16 17 25 20 28 23 26 22 20 12 200 MB DIV 22 51 37 46 35 43 55 83 61 94 54 21 24 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -4 -3 -6 -4 -3 LAND (KM) 653 631 609 590 574 530 504 463 435 379 367 379 415 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.4 10.6 10.9 11.1 11.8 12.4 13.2 14.0 14.9 15.7 16.4 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 98.4 98.7 99.0 99.4 99.7 100.4 101.2 102.1 103.2 104.3 105.5 106.8 108.0 STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 15 26 37 39 46 51 57 55 55 48 29 14 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 15. 24. 31. 36. 38. 40. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 16. 16. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 10. 10. 13. 13. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 8. 17. 28. 38. 44. 46. 49. 48. 42. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912011 INVEST 06/05/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912011 INVEST 06/05/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##