* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942011 06/05/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 34 33 28 22 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 34 33 28 22 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 29 29 26 22 18 16 22 18 SHEAR (KT) 8 10 10 9 15 28 30 43 42 52 45 49 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -4 -2 2 4 5 7 7 4 6 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 235 240 242 239 245 246 238 247 242 240 234 225 232 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 138 137 136 136 136 136 139 139 137 135 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 125 126 124 122 121 120 121 124 123 121 118 116 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.9 -53.0 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 72 67 65 65 66 64 59 53 56 49 54 47 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 9 8 7 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 72 80 87 89 89 81 74 52 47 31 35 28 30 200 MB DIV 43 53 63 58 84 71 45 35 31 50 26 0 17 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 0 5 3 5 3 4 4 3 6 LAND (KM) 207 220 243 250 264 276 281 265 188 66 -23 22 150 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.7 18.0 18.5 19.1 19.5 20.3 21.4 22.4 23.4 24.4 LONG(DEG W) 79.6 80.0 80.4 80.6 80.8 80.9 80.8 80.9 81.1 81.2 81.4 81.9 82.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 4 4 3 2 2 3 5 5 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 77 76 63 70 68 65 64 67 70 67 54 29 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. -3. -11. -19. -25. -29. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. -14. -15. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 8. 3. -3. -10. -15. -18. -21. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942011 INVEST 06/05/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 70.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942011 INVEST 06/05/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942011 INVEST 06/05/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)