* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912011 06/05/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 40 51 64 75 80 80 83 83 83 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 40 51 64 75 80 80 83 83 83 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 40 49 58 68 77 83 84 82 SHEAR (KT) 3 0 5 8 9 8 12 13 14 13 16 15 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 -4 -3 -4 -2 -4 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 100 100 99 73 87 99 108 75 67 60 79 72 65 SST (C) 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.1 29.7 29.2 28.5 27.8 27.4 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 162 164 165 166 166 166 164 161 156 148 141 136 134 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -51.3 -51.3 -51.2 -51.5 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 68 69 68 71 69 69 64 60 59 55 54 52 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 10 11 12 13 15 15 14 16 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR 34 28 17 24 29 22 25 20 21 21 18 17 7 200 MB DIV 43 44 41 35 22 58 59 80 138 37 45 69 23 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 -3 -6 -8 -6 -5 -3 LAND (KM) 611 591 573 560 551 541 539 542 554 577 625 690 761 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.8 11.0 11.3 11.5 12.0 12.5 13.0 13.4 13.9 14.3 14.4 14.4 LONG(DEG W) 98.5 98.9 99.3 99.8 100.2 101.1 102.2 103.4 104.8 106.2 107.6 108.9 109.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 17 31 35 46 48 53 61 64 53 44 25 20 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 15. 24. 31. 35. 37. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. 15. 16. 17. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 8. 6. 10. 10. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 26. 39. 50. 55. 55. 58. 58. 58. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912011 INVEST 06/05/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 64% is 5.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 19% is 5.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912011 INVEST 06/05/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##