* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942011 06/06/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 30 31 30 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 30 31 30 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 29 28 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 11 13 10 14 16 27 34 49 46 42 43 36 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -2 0 1 2 5 1 10 4 0 0 4 SHEAR DIR 239 244 241 230 225 236 241 252 240 245 229 250 248 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 138 137 136 136 137 138 142 139 137 136 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 126 125 123 122 122 122 123 126 122 119 119 115 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.5 -52.1 -52.5 -52.2 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.4 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 70 67 67 68 70 66 63 62 60 58 52 50 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 86 86 88 87 93 72 72 40 47 26 34 24 17 200 MB DIV 46 37 48 60 87 66 49 22 32 21 17 -14 -16 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 -2 3 4 LAND (KM) 239 253 275 287 306 323 279 209 112 48 4 83 191 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.2 17.5 17.9 18.2 18.8 19.5 20.2 21.2 22.2 22.9 23.5 24.2 LONG(DEG W) 80.1 80.5 80.8 81.0 81.2 81.3 81.5 81.9 82.3 82.7 83.2 83.8 84.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 5 5 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 71 58 71 69 68 67 70 74 69 13 0 35 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -6. -14. -22. -26. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 0. -6. -13. -16. -18. -20. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942011 INVEST 06/06/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 67.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942011 INVEST 06/06/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942011 INVEST 06/06/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)