* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912011 06/06/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 34 38 50 62 72 82 84 87 86 86 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 34 38 50 62 72 82 84 87 86 86 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 35 42 51 60 70 78 84 86 SHEAR (KT) 2 5 5 9 8 5 6 3 6 3 4 10 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 190 131 93 109 139 127 108 146 56 65 334 355 2 SST (C) 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.4 30.5 30.6 30.6 30.3 29.9 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 164 167 168 169 169 167 162 158 155 154 146 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -51.7 -51.9 -50.6 -50.9 -49.8 -50.6 -49.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 72 71 73 69 69 64 61 58 56 53 52 53 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 12 12 12 14 16 17 21 20 22 21 22 850 MB ENV VOR 24 16 17 24 28 23 26 17 19 10 11 7 13 200 MB DIV 64 63 48 47 48 68 85 114 113 42 55 33 41 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -5 -1 -3 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 594 573 552 514 476 425 395 354 331 340 363 369 380 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.8 11.0 11.4 11.8 12.5 13.0 13.8 14.5 14.9 14.8 15.0 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 98.2 98.3 98.3 98.6 98.9 99.6 100.1 101.0 102.1 103.0 103.5 104.3 105.4 STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 3 5 5 4 5 6 5 4 3 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 22 34 46 54 60 62 63 34 58 49 48 48 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 15. 24. 32. 36. 39. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 10. 15. 13. 17. 16. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 13. 25. 37. 47. 57. 59. 62. 61. 61. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912011 INVEST 06/06/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 68% is 5.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 39% is 4.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 27% is 4.7 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 26% is 7.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912011 INVEST 06/06/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##