* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942011 06/06/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 28 25 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 28 25 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 28 26 23 18 15 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 11 9 7 16 20 27 38 45 52 35 31 28 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 0 2 5 3 5 7 4 11 9 8 4 SHEAR DIR 247 235 219 218 236 245 243 249 251 254 259 265 276 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 138 136 136 137 138 142 143 140 138 134 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 126 125 122 122 123 124 127 128 122 121 117 114 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 -51.3 -50.7 -49.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 71 70 70 71 70 69 63 65 61 59 52 46 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 7 6 7 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 87 88 90 102 95 83 68 63 49 53 36 28 4 200 MB DIV 49 52 63 84 78 39 48 29 50 31 1 -10 -22 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 4 3 4 11 5 4 4 8 LAND (KM) 310 328 331 330 332 364 294 181 56 20 84 196 302 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.4 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.7 19.4 20.3 21.3 22.2 22.8 23.5 24.2 LONG(DEG W) 81.0 81.4 81.8 82.0 82.2 82.6 83.0 83.5 84.1 84.5 85.0 85.8 86.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 3 3 4 5 5 6 4 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 73 69 68 69 71 75 75 63 67 62 67 59 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 759 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 1. -7. -15. -22. -25. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -4. -11. -15. -17. -18. -20. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942011 INVEST 06/06/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 70.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942011 INVEST 06/06/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942011 INVEST 06/06/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)