* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912011 06/06/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 36 47 59 66 71 73 73 73 69 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 36 47 59 66 71 73 73 73 69 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 35 41 49 54 59 62 66 67 SHEAR (KT) 5 6 9 6 5 5 4 4 3 6 8 7 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 -2 0 3 3 SHEAR DIR 144 89 101 127 131 128 122 252 192 2 337 338 348 SST (C) 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.6 30.7 30.5 30.2 29.8 29.5 29.3 28.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 166 168 169 169 168 165 161 157 155 152 143 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.2 -51.8 -51.2 -50.7 -50.3 -50.1 -50.0 -49.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 72 71 69 69 67 62 56 53 52 50 49 47 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 12 12 14 16 19 20 20 20 21 18 850 MB ENV VOR 14 18 24 24 17 20 14 14 9 2 1 -5 9 200 MB DIV 57 39 37 39 56 56 75 120 57 64 45 19 12 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -3 -2 -4 -3 -5 LAND (KM) 562 537 512 474 438 398 368 327 300 312 344 355 384 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 5 5 5 5 6 5 3 3 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 41 50 56 62 64 65 56 46 56 46 48 45 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 15. 24. 32. 36. 39. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 12. 14. 14. 15. 15. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 22. 34. 41. 46. 48. 48. 48. 44. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912011 INVEST 06/06/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 54.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 48% is 4.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912011 INVEST 06/06/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##