* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942011 06/06/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 28 27 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 28 27 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 26 25 23 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 10 13 21 26 27 35 46 50 40 35 26 23 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 0 3 5 5 2 5 4 4 10 4 4 0 SHEAR DIR 244 226 220 231 238 238 252 240 239 228 259 260 274 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 139 136 136 135 137 138 140 144 141 137 134 133 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 123 121 120 122 123 126 129 125 120 117 116 115 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -53.2 -52.5 -52.7 -51.5 -51.3 -50.4 -49.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 68 67 68 68 69 66 62 64 64 54 48 45 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 9 7 7 6 6 6 9 8 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 84 87 94 84 77 83 59 61 41 49 33 27 -8 200 MB DIV 59 67 81 77 49 59 43 52 23 30 -15 -40 -17 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 5 4 4 5 3 7 LAND (KM) 345 353 363 369 376 341 254 117 4 75 170 296 397 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.0 18.3 18.5 18.6 19.1 19.8 20.9 22.1 23.1 23.7 24.5 25.1 LONG(DEG W) 81.6 81.8 82.0 82.1 82.2 82.5 83.0 83.6 84.0 84.5 85.2 86.1 87.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 2 2 4 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 68 69 70 71 72 75 73 67 48 51 59 49 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 781 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -3. -13. -20. -26. -29. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -2. -4. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -7. -14. -16. -19. -19. -22. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942011 INVEST 06/06/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 70.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942011 INVEST 06/06/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942011 INVEST 06/06/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)