* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912011 06/06/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 38 43 49 53 55 56 59 59 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 38 43 49 53 55 56 59 59 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 32 34 36 39 41 43 46 48 SHEAR (KT) 6 8 8 8 6 3 1 3 7 4 3 9 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 2 1 3 5 2 0 2 SHEAR DIR 91 98 118 143 167 217 202 358 304 29 53 45 54 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.5 29.2 28.8 28.5 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 162 163 163 165 165 162 158 154 150 145 144 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.0 -52.2 -50.9 -51.0 -50.6 -51.2 -50.5 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 8 7 9 8 9 8 10 9 700-500 MB RH 72 69 68 66 63 61 55 51 48 47 47 44 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 14 16 15 15 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR 14 21 18 15 15 16 5 5 3 11 9 10 5 200 MB DIV 24 6 13 40 51 62 50 82 71 27 27 22 -7 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -6 -2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 563 531 498 469 445 410 344 282 255 226 252 268 260 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.3 11.6 12.0 12.3 12.9 13.9 14.9 15.7 16.2 16.5 16.7 16.9 LONG(DEG W) 98.3 98.6 98.9 99.3 99.6 100.2 101.0 101.9 102.9 103.8 104.8 105.3 105.4 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 5 5 4 5 7 6 6 5 4 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 40 48 55 58 59 61 28 58 41 40 34 29 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 31. 35. 38. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 6. 8. 7. 7. 9. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 18. 24. 28. 30. 32. 34. 34. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912011 INVEST 06/06/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 52.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912011 INVEST 06/06/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##