* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912011 06/06/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 35 44 58 66 71 72 75 74 73 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 35 44 58 66 71 72 75 74 73 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 33 39 45 53 60 65 67 65 SHEAR (KT) 6 6 8 7 5 4 4 5 9 9 5 2 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 -3 -3 0 1 3 0 2 4 7 4 SHEAR DIR 112 123 127 120 131 145 80 48 101 65 24 22 43 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.3 28.8 28.5 27.9 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 162 163 163 164 162 161 156 150 146 140 133 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.2 -51.1 -50.5 -50.4 -50.5 -50.5 -50.2 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 8 7 9 9 9 8 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 68 68 67 66 63 56 49 47 44 47 44 43 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 12 13 14 17 17 17 17 18 19 19 850 MB ENV VOR 20 18 14 13 14 11 4 0 6 16 11 16 -1 200 MB DIV 5 22 45 59 50 78 119 42 43 -7 10 17 4 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -6 -3 -5 -3 -4 -4 LAND (KM) 566 546 529 507 489 445 405 360 297 303 337 383 394 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 5 5 5 6 7 6 4 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 21 42 48 50 54 56 53 53 45 39 31 19 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 37. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 9. 10. 9. 11. 12. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 19. 33. 41. 46. 47. 50. 49. 48. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912011 INVEST 06/06/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912011 INVEST 06/06/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##