* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942011 06/07/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 28 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 28 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 24 22 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 14 19 25 24 28 38 47 44 48 39 34 29 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 6 8 9 4 9 6 1 3 5 1 6 SHEAR DIR 222 230 240 236 232 251 238 246 231 244 247 267 268 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 136 136 137 140 141 140 139 135 131 127 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 123 122 121 122 125 125 124 122 120 115 110 107 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.2 -52.2 -53.0 -52.5 -53.2 -52.2 -52.1 -51.4 -51.6 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 72 71 71 70 67 64 62 64 59 56 48 47 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 92 89 81 78 80 56 61 27 35 29 33 13 -8 200 MB DIV 94 80 42 40 41 40 44 16 22 1 -24 -11 -21 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 0 -2 0 0 2 2 LAND (KM) 342 348 359 371 340 258 181 113 39 60 149 63 -45 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 81.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 7 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 68 68 69 70 70 75 73 64 10 33 2 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 747 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -5. -14. -22. -29. -33. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -4. -11. -19. -26. -27. -27. -27. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942011 INVEST 06/07/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 69.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942011 INVEST 06/07/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942011 INVEST 06/07/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)