* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912011 06/07/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 44 54 60 63 67 68 67 67 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 44 54 60 63 67 68 67 67 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 41 48 54 59 62 63 SHEAR (KT) 9 11 6 4 3 2 4 11 9 9 5 7 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -1 0 3 6 0 -1 -2 4 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 118 135 155 196 148 99 55 36 7 4 39 48 65 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.1 29.8 29.5 29.1 28.7 27.8 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 160 161 163 165 164 161 158 153 149 141 131 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -52.6 -51.9 -52.3 -50.2 -50.9 -50.2 -50.7 -49.8 -50.5 -50.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 8 7 10 8 9 9 9 7 7 700-500 MB RH 68 65 64 62 61 58 48 49 46 47 45 45 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 12 13 15 16 16 16 18 17 16 18 850 MB ENV VOR 21 18 15 15 13 6 3 -5 1 5 15 10 -6 200 MB DIV 24 51 67 64 70 88 106 45 12 -21 36 -4 22 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -3 -1 -1 -3 -3 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 524 512 501 485 470 420 384 382 405 384 363 427 524 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 4 5 6 6 6 5 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 46 51 52 54 56 60 51 54 50 48 37 11 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 31. 35. 38. 40. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 7. 7. 9. 10. 8. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 19. 29. 35. 38. 42. 43. 42. 42. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912011 INVEST 06/07/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912011 INVEST 06/07/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##