* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942011 06/07/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 21 21 20 29 33 34 41 29 34 17 21 14 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 9 8 4 5 8 10 2 5 -1 2 -2 SHEAR DIR 236 240 239 231 239 245 249 247 243 247 266 291 280 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 136 136 136 137 139 141 143 140 139 136 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 120 121 121 120 122 124 126 126 122 121 119 117 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.3 -51.9 -51.4 -51.2 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 9 8 9 8 8 7 8 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 71 70 67 68 67 67 68 70 65 61 60 59 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 6 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 82 74 75 80 68 45 30 21 29 33 33 23 3 200 MB DIV 71 35 45 34 43 51 47 36 28 12 9 -22 4 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 1 3 3 3 1 4 0 5 1 7 LAND (KM) 359 353 349 365 340 302 271 181 91 33 10 82 135 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 81.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 3 2 3 3 4 4 3 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 69 69 69 70 70 73 75 67 67 68 71 67 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 718 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 25. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -5. -12. -18. -22. -23. -22. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -8. -13. -18. -20. -20. -17. -16. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942011 INVEST 06/07/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 69.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942011 INVEST 06/07/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942011 INVEST 06/07/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)