* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942011 06/07/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 24 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 24 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 20 23 27 33 34 44 49 39 27 20 15 12 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 10 4 3 8 2 9 9 11 2 10 0 SHEAR DIR 235 238 236 241 246 241 254 236 256 260 297 276 323 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.5 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.8 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 137 138 138 140 143 142 136 131 130 132 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 121 122 123 123 126 127 126 120 115 114 114 115 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -53.1 -52.1 -51.9 -51.3 -50.7 -50.3 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 71 69 67 66 63 66 67 64 56 50 48 49 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 76 77 80 66 51 52 24 27 22 25 9 -1 -33 200 MB DIV 38 45 34 56 39 42 22 23 -1 -6 -25 -12 -7 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 2 1 4 1 0 0 0 7 4 7 LAND (KM) 346 360 376 366 343 235 126 55 83 147 213 309 407 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 82.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 70 71 72 74 75 70 64 71 66 47 35 48 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 773 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -8. -17. -23. -26. -26. -24. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -11. -17. -23. -25. -24. -20. -19. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942011 INVEST 06/07/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 72.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942011 INVEST 06/07/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942011 INVEST 06/07/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)