* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912011 06/07/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 48 56 67 73 75 75 76 66 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 48 56 67 73 75 75 76 66 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 35 41 48 55 62 66 66 61 SHEAR (KT) 5 3 3 1 3 7 4 7 6 8 6 4 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 2 3 2 2 -1 2 0 8 2 7 12 SHEAR DIR 139 138 96 166 131 56 125 10 75 51 92 187 216 SST (C) 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.3 28.8 28.0 26.8 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 162 164 164 163 161 159 155 151 143 130 118 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -51.0 -51.5 -50.7 -51.1 -50.4 -50.5 -49.9 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 7 9 8 10 8 9 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 70 66 64 60 58 49 50 47 49 47 50 44 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 12 13 15 13 17 17 18 18 21 17 850 MB ENV VOR 14 17 17 10 3 5 4 20 21 28 25 19 18 200 MB DIV 49 32 49 62 77 107 79 85 39 38 23 31 -2 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -1 0 -3 0 0 -1 1 -3 -4 -6 LAND (KM) 540 519 501 476 452 387 342 331 322 324 329 352 454 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 48 50 51 55 57 50 57 48 47 37 21 7 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 37. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 12. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 8. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 9. 10. 11. 12. 15. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 23. 31. 42. 48. 50. 50. 51. 41. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912011 INVEST 06/07/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 52.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912011 INVEST 06/07/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##