* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942011 06/07/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 20 20 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 20 20 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 18 17 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 15 21 30 38 34 49 44 51 34 31 22 28 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 9 0 -1 1 3 8 -3 2 5 2 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 234 238 239 243 243 234 237 241 251 265 289 299 289 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.9 28.0 27.7 27.2 27.0 27.3 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 138 139 140 138 134 135 131 125 122 126 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 126 126 127 127 125 120 119 114 108 105 106 106 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -53.3 -53.3 -52.7 -52.1 -51.4 -50.9 -50.6 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 7 8 7 9 8 10 700-500 MB RH 70 67 63 66 66 64 62 59 56 48 47 48 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 81 78 62 47 42 23 39 38 33 18 4 -37 -46 200 MB DIV 50 58 53 42 44 56 37 6 15 10 -12 11 -10 700-850 TADV 2 0 2 2 3 2 0 1 0 2 2 0 1 LAND (KM) 351 316 294 263 196 33 26 45 -4 -2 73 111 7 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.4 18.9 19.6 20.2 21.7 23.3 24.7 26.0 27.1 28.1 28.9 29.7 LONG(DEG W) 81.6 81.3 81.0 81.0 81.0 81.0 81.1 81.2 81.7 82.5 83.5 84.3 85.0 STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 6 6 7 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 68 68 66 68 69 64 25 24 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 28. 30. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. -5. -16. -23. -30. -31. -32. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -5. -11. -17. -21. -20. -19. -19. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942011 INVEST 06/07/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 67.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942011 INVEST 06/07/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942011 INVEST 06/07/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)