* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE EP012011 06/07/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 49 59 73 79 84 86 87 80 75 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 49 59 73 79 84 86 87 80 75 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 40 44 53 64 74 83 88 89 84 75 SHEAR (KT) 4 4 2 3 2 1 7 9 5 3 8 2 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 3 1 3 2 0 -1 1 2 1 6 2 SHEAR DIR 88 83 77 95 26 68 55 50 20 84 359 344 252 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.2 27.3 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 162 162 164 163 161 157 154 151 144 135 125 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.0 -51.4 -51.1 -51.0 -50.4 -50.6 -50.4 -50.2 -50.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 68 65 65 60 55 52 50 47 47 42 47 42 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 13 14 14 17 17 18 19 20 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR 12 13 2 -2 -4 -2 9 20 22 32 13 17 -3 200 MB DIV 47 56 73 75 90 99 70 37 39 30 -6 0 11 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 -2 -4 -5 -6 -4 LAND (KM) 549 528 510 486 462 412 375 370 371 396 417 428 444 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.8 12.0 12.3 12.6 13.4 14.2 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.5 16.0 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 100.1 100.3 100.4 100.6 100.7 101.4 102.4 103.3 104.1 105.0 106.0 107.0 108.0 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 3 4 6 6 4 4 5 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 48 50 51 54 57 53 56 49 48 41 12 6 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 22. 28. 32. 34. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 7. 8. 10. 10. 13. 9. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 19. 29. 43. 49. 54. 56. 57. 50. 45. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012011 ONE 06/07/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 52.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 66% is 5.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 54% is 6.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 38% is 6.7 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 38% is 14.1 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012011 ONE 06/07/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##