* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912011 06/07/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 41 51 65 73 78 81 83 76 72 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 41 51 65 73 78 81 83 76 72 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 30 32 38 47 56 65 72 76 76 70 SHEAR (KT) 4 4 2 3 2 1 7 9 5 3 8 2 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 3 1 3 2 1 -1 1 2 1 6 2 SHEAR DIR 101 96 76 94 26 66 59 51 20 86 359 343 251 SST (C) 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.5 29.2 28.8 28.2 27.2 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 162 163 164 163 161 157 154 150 144 134 125 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.0 -51.4 -51.1 -51.0 -50.4 -50.5 -50.4 -50.2 -50.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 68 66 65 59 55 52 48 45 47 43 47 42 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 13 14 14 17 17 18 18 20 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR 13 14 3 -1 -3 -1 9 21 22 32 14 17 -2 200 MB DIV 47 55 73 74 89 99 71 37 39 30 -6 -1 11 700-850 TADV -1 0 -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 -2 -4 -5 -6 -4 LAND (KM) 537 518 499 476 452 402 365 359 360 386 409 419 436 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.9 12.1 12.4 12.7 13.5 14.3 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.6 16.1 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 100.1 100.3 100.4 100.6 100.7 101.4 102.4 103.3 104.1 105.0 106.0 107.0 108.0 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 3 4 6 6 4 4 5 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 48 50 52 55 57 53 56 49 48 40 14 7 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 37. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 11. 13. 12. 11. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 7. 8. 10. 10. 13. 9. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 16. 26. 40. 48. 53. 56. 58. 51. 47. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912011 INVEST 06/07/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 52.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 60% is 5.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 44% is 5.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 28% is 5.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 28% is 10.6 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912011 INVEST 06/07/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##