* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ADRIAN EP012011 06/08/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 45 50 55 62 74 82 83 84 84 80 75 V (KT) LAND 35 40 45 50 55 62 74 82 83 84 84 80 75 V (KT) LGE mod 35 40 45 49 54 64 74 82 88 88 86 80 71 SHEAR (KT) 5 4 2 2 4 5 10 6 6 4 8 3 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 4 2 0 0 -1 0 1 4 2 3 SHEAR DIR 70 74 75 346 37 63 65 54 11 76 42 291 84 SST (C) 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.6 29.4 29.0 28.4 27.9 27.0 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 162 163 164 162 159 157 152 146 141 132 121 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.1 -51.1 -51.7 -50.7 -51.0 -50.3 -50.3 -49.9 -50.7 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 9 7 7 700-500 MB RH 65 65 61 56 53 54 48 50 43 48 45 45 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 13 15 15 13 16 18 18 18 19 19 19 850 MB ENV VOR 13 2 -4 -5 -4 -2 13 16 23 22 18 11 4 200 MB DIV 55 67 83 97 107 61 66 40 24 10 35 -15 16 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -4 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 546 517 489 472 455 394 365 371 404 416 378 394 479 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.9 12.2 12.5 12.8 13.8 14.5 14.8 14.9 15.3 16.1 16.5 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 100.3 100.4 100.4 100.7 101.0 101.9 102.8 103.8 104.8 105.7 106.2 107.2 108.6 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 4 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 48 51 54 57 57 53 52 48 45 27 17 8 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 28. 30. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 12. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. 6. 9. 9. 9. 11. 11. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 20. 27. 39. 47. 48. 49. 49. 45. 40. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012011 ADRIAN 06/08/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 53.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 64% is 5.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 59% is 7.5 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 47% is 8.5 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 47% is 17.6 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012011 ADRIAN 06/08/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##