* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ADRIAN EP012011 06/08/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 52 59 65 70 82 89 92 91 89 84 78 65 V (KT) LAND 45 52 59 65 70 82 89 92 91 89 84 78 65 V (KT) LGE mod 45 52 59 65 72 84 93 97 95 90 82 72 60 SHEAR (KT) 3 4 4 6 4 9 5 6 6 5 2 4 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 2 1 2 1 0 0 -1 0 6 9 9 SHEAR DIR 56 62 55 17 59 65 154 5 62 6 223 296 267 SST (C) 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.7 29.4 28.8 28.1 27.4 27.1 26.2 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 162 163 163 161 157 151 143 135 132 124 112 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.4 -51.3 -51.1 -50.6 -50.5 -50.7 -50.9 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 8 7 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 64 60 59 54 54 50 46 45 45 44 43 41 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 14 14 13 16 17 17 17 19 18 18 14 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -3 -3 0 -5 8 24 19 26 7 14 -10 7 200 MB DIV 59 63 82 93 86 48 51 31 27 -4 -33 -19 2 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -2 -1 -3 -3 -2 -4 -5 -4 -3 0 LAND (KM) 552 524 496 463 431 404 406 401 431 442 461 498 565 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.9 13.3 14.1 14.5 15.1 15.5 15.8 15.9 16.4 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 100.9 101.0 101.0 101.3 101.6 102.8 103.9 105.1 106.2 106.9 107.4 108.5 109.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 5 6 7 6 6 5 3 4 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 52 53 56 57 54 55 49 40 11 7 5 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 21. 21. 20. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 8. 7. 5. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 6. 8. 9. 9. 11. 11. 11. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 20. 25. 37. 44. 47. 46. 44. 39. 33. 20. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012011 ADRIAN 06/08/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 54.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 80% is 6.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 80% is 10.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 77% is 13.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 77% is 25.6 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012011 ADRIAN 06/08/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##