* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ADRIAN EP012011 06/08/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 68 72 79 86 94 93 92 83 82 74 65 V (KT) LAND 55 62 68 72 79 86 94 93 92 83 82 74 65 V (KT) LGE mod 55 63 71 77 83 93 98 100 94 84 72 61 50 SHEAR (KT) 3 1 4 5 6 4 4 5 3 5 2 2 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 3 0 -1 0 -3 1 3 7 5 7 2 SHEAR DIR 127 70 18 29 47 116 64 33 321 123 293 61 219 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.5 29.1 28.4 27.6 26.7 25.8 24.9 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 164 163 161 158 154 147 138 129 119 110 102 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.2 -51.5 -51.9 -51.9 -50.5 -51.0 -50.1 -50.7 -50.1 -50.6 -50.2 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 8 8 9 7 9 7 7 6 7 5 700-500 MB RH 61 56 56 56 57 49 50 47 46 43 44 42 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 14 13 16 16 17 17 19 15 18 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR -1 2 6 3 4 18 22 22 15 14 17 11 7 200 MB DIV 49 70 84 89 61 61 18 15 -8 9 -17 18 29 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 0 -2 -2 -4 -3 -3 -1 0 LAND (KM) 467 435 403 388 372 359 345 367 408 422 443 498 548 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.1 14.8 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.5 17.2 17.7 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 100.8 101.0 101.2 101.7 102.1 103.3 104.4 105.5 106.6 107.6 108.5 109.5 110.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 5 6 6 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 57 56 53 52 54 49 46 29 8 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 11. 14. 15. 14. 12. 9. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 3. 4. 6. 6. 9. 3. 8. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 17. 24. 32. 39. 38. 37. 28. 27. 19. 10. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012011 ADRIAN 06/08/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 54.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 68% is 5.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 68% is 9.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 68% is 13.1 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 68% is 24.4 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012011 ADRIAN 06/08/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##