* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ADRIAN EP012011 06/08/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 70 76 80 87 90 90 86 84 76 67 55 V (KT) LAND 60 65 70 76 80 87 90 90 86 84 76 67 55 V (KT) LGE mod 60 67 73 79 84 93 97 93 86 77 67 55 42 SHEAR (KT) 6 8 8 7 5 4 3 0 4 3 8 6 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 1 3 0 2 13 1 7 10 12 8 SHEAR DIR 64 53 67 80 84 82 155 70 80 189 281 260 237 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.1 28.4 27.7 27.2 26.4 25.1 24.0 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 164 162 161 160 158 154 146 138 133 126 112 101 94 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.0 -50.7 -50.7 -50.5 -50.6 -50.3 -50.4 -50.4 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 56 55 57 54 49 48 47 43 43 42 40 40 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 13 17 17 17 19 19 17 18 17 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 0 10 7 7 11 31 28 28 18 30 14 25 13 200 MB DIV 49 67 62 45 45 8 2 34 13 -23 -29 -8 11 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -4 -2 -2 -2 -3 -7 -1 -4 -6 -4 -1 LAND (KM) 418 402 387 374 369 325 349 354 333 354 434 500 467 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.7 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.4 15.9 16.4 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.4 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 101.3 101.8 102.2 102.7 103.2 104.2 105.5 106.3 106.8 107.6 108.9 110.1 111.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 7 5 4 4 6 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 54 53 54 54 49 46 28 17 12 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 10. 8. 5. 2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 20. 27. 30. 30. 26. 24. 16. 7. -5. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012011 ADRIAN 06/08/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 52.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012011 ADRIAN 06/08/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##