* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ADRIAN EP012011 06/09/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 77 84 89 95 100 103 98 93 85 76 62 53 V (KT) LAND 70 77 84 89 95 100 103 98 93 85 76 62 53 V (KT) LGE mod 70 77 83 89 95 102 104 98 87 74 61 49 39 SHEAR (KT) 6 8 9 9 6 4 5 3 1 5 6 14 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 1 -1 5 4 8 7 12 5 5 SHEAR DIR 57 54 72 87 78 66 64 74 240 267 220 242 199 SST (C) 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.3 28.7 27.8 27.0 26.2 25.4 24.6 24.0 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 163 160 159 158 156 150 140 131 123 115 107 100 96 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.9 -52.0 -51.2 -50.5 -51.4 -50.3 -51.0 -50.4 -51.1 -50.5 -50.7 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 9 7 8 7 8 6 7 5 5 700-500 MB RH 57 56 54 50 50 47 46 44 42 39 39 38 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 17 16 18 17 18 17 18 18 18 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 11 12 12 16 31 27 22 20 20 26 17 14 2 200 MB DIV 57 57 43 52 55 -7 8 -19 -2 -30 13 3 51 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -2 -2 -2 -4 -5 -3 -2 -4 -5 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 418 405 396 379 357 369 393 403 437 495 574 547 525 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.0 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.5 16.0 16.4 16.8 17.2 17.6 18.1 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 102.0 102.5 103.0 103.5 104.0 105.2 106.3 107.2 108.1 109.1 110.3 111.2 112.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 53 56 52 48 49 35 14 7 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 1. -2. -6. -10. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 7. 6. 7. 7. 7. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 19. 25. 30. 33. 28. 23. 15. 6. -8. -17. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012011 ADRIAN 06/09/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012011 ADRIAN 06/09/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##