* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ADRIAN EP012011 06/09/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 81 87 92 96 101 96 89 81 72 56 46 34 V (KT) LAND 75 81 87 92 96 101 96 89 81 72 56 46 34 V (KT) LGE mod 75 81 87 92 96 99 95 86 73 62 51 41 33 SHEAR (KT) 10 5 6 6 6 3 3 8 4 9 7 5 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 1 2 1 9 2 7 8 9 12 10 SHEAR DIR 23 69 97 12 94 85 100 144 133 235 251 242 194 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.2 29.0 28.7 27.8 26.7 25.8 25.1 24.6 24.5 24.1 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 155 153 150 141 129 120 112 107 106 102 90 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -51.5 -51.1 -51.0 -50.9 -50.5 -50.7 -51.0 -51.0 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 55 53 53 49 50 48 43 45 43 41 38 32 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 17 18 18 19 18 17 17 17 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 17 20 21 34 39 15 25 15 27 19 13 -1 0 200 MB DIV 45 22 40 51 44 8 11 -13 -32 -22 2 -9 16 700-850 TADV -7 -2 -5 -7 -9 -7 -6 -2 -3 -3 -4 0 -1 LAND (KM) 430 415 395 392 393 418 445 504 580 619 621 628 667 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.3 15.8 16.3 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.6 18.1 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 103.1 103.7 104.2 104.8 105.3 106.4 107.7 108.9 110.0 111.0 111.9 113.2 114.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 55 50 49 45 35 11 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -7. -11. -16. -19. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 17. 21. 26. 21. 14. 6. -3. -19. -29. -41. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012011 ADRIAN 06/09/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012011 ADRIAN 06/09/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##