* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ADRIAN EP012011 06/09/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 97 103 107 108 105 96 88 73 65 52 42 29 V (KT) LAND 90 97 103 107 108 105 96 88 73 65 52 42 29 V (KT) LGE mod 90 98 103 105 106 101 90 77 65 54 45 36 29 SHEAR (KT) 5 6 3 6 7 8 7 10 9 4 7 5 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 6 5 1 1 6 1 4 9 11 5 8 SHEAR DIR 51 54 57 109 86 97 155 128 167 238 256 251 180 SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.6 28.2 27.1 26.2 25.6 25.2 24.9 24.8 24.4 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 153 149 145 133 124 117 112 109 109 105 95 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.7 -51.4 -51.4 -51.3 -50.8 -51.4 -50.6 -51.5 -51.3 -51.8 -51.5 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 56 55 53 53 54 46 44 43 44 40 41 38 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 17 18 19 18 18 17 18 15 16 13 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR 14 19 29 33 25 10 11 14 26 14 6 -14 -16 200 MB DIV 15 10 33 48 33 14 -12 -39 -45 9 6 17 4 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -8 -10 -7 -5 0 -2 -3 -6 -2 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 443 440 449 458 472 507 552 601 651 658 659 652 662 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.4 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.6 16.1 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.8 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 103.7 104.4 105.1 105.7 106.3 107.7 108.9 109.8 110.6 111.3 112.1 113.1 114.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 7 7 6 4 4 3 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 52 50 44 36 24 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. -1. -7. -14. -20. -26. -30. -35. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 5. 0. 2. -2. -2. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 17. 18. 15. 6. -2. -17. -25. -38. -48. -61. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012011 ADRIAN 06/09/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 2.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 33% is 6.2 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 33% is 13.5 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012011 ADRIAN 06/09/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##