* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ADRIAN EP012011 06/09/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 105 107 107 106 95 86 72 63 54 46 38 24 V (KT) LAND 100 105 107 107 106 95 86 72 63 54 46 38 24 V (KT) LGE mod 100 107 110 108 105 95 81 69 58 48 41 35 30 SHEAR (KT) 8 4 4 8 2 9 6 7 7 5 3 6 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 7 3 2 7 5 8 8 10 3 3 0 SHEAR DIR 37 27 137 125 131 130 193 170 308 314 9 117 168 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.6 28.0 27.5 26.6 26.1 25.6 25.4 25.1 25.1 24.3 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 149 144 138 128 122 117 115 111 111 104 93 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.6 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.0 -51.1 -51.1 -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 54 52 54 54 50 46 48 44 43 40 40 40 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 18 18 19 16 18 15 15 14 13 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR 14 25 32 27 7 11 -1 14 14 6 -4 -14 -17 200 MB DIV -1 10 32 28 29 2 -41 -29 -19 24 23 23 -5 700-850 TADV -7 -9 -11 -7 -6 -3 0 -1 -4 -3 -3 -5 0 LAND (KM) 449 461 478 505 527 590 633 692 724 719 722 730 767 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.5 14.7 15.0 15.2 15.6 15.9 16.3 16.6 16.9 17.0 17.5 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 104.5 105.2 105.8 106.6 107.4 108.9 109.7 110.7 111.8 112.6 112.9 114.0 115.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 6 5 6 5 3 4 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 50 45 37 25 13 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -2. -7. -15. -23. -30. -36. -41. -46. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 10. 10. 7. 4. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 2. -2. -2. -3. -6. -6. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 7. 7. 6. -5. -14. -28. -37. -46. -54. -62. -76. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012011 ADRIAN 06/09/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012011 ADRIAN 06/09/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##