* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942011 06/10/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 27 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 24 27 27 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 23 27 25 22 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 38 42 38 36 46 41 49 32 28 24 19 21 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 3 3 2 -1 0 1 1 -6 -3 6 8 SHEAR DIR 216 227 234 227 227 237 238 242 254 270 266 236 214 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 27.9 27.6 27.6 27.0 26.4 26.7 25.8 23.9 23.7 22.9 17.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 136 132 132 125 118 122 113 100 100 96 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 131 125 121 120 111 104 107 100 91 92 88 73 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -53.1 -52.7 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -52.7 -54.0 -54.7 -55.6 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 8 5 4 1 0 700-500 MB RH 65 64 64 62 62 61 57 58 61 60 58 60 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 5 6 6 4 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 33 30 50 47 9 -4 -42 -17 0 55 116 167 200 MB DIV 26 37 26 37 39 6 15 14 34 20 59 69 72 700-850 TADV -1 3 6 3 -1 4 3 2 16 9 28 11 -33 LAND (KM) 211 98 -24 38 137 92 225 370 372 536 845 709 579 LAT (DEG N) 20.1 21.1 22.0 23.2 24.3 26.6 28.7 30.5 32.0 33.1 35.0 38.1 41.6 LONG(DEG W) 81.3 80.7 80.1 79.9 79.6 79.2 78.3 76.9 74.3 70.8 65.8 61.0 56.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 11 11 12 12 11 11 12 14 19 24 25 25 HEAT CONTENT 71 67 71 14 34 12 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 20. 23. 24. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -7. -16. -22. -27. -27. -27. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 0. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. -2. -7. -16. -20. -21. -20. -17. -18. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942011 INVEST 06/10/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942011 INVEST 06/10/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942011 INVEST 06/10/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)