* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ADRIAN EP012011 06/10/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 128 131 129 126 108 90 69 53 38 30 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 120 128 131 129 126 108 90 69 53 38 30 17 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 120 125 123 118 111 96 81 66 54 44 37 32 28 SHEAR (KT) 2 5 5 4 6 7 11 12 18 9 12 14 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 8 8 5 7 8 1 4 0 4 -2 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 29 121 113 110 103 189 194 295 324 11 108 136 180 SST (C) 28.9 28.5 28.0 27.6 27.2 26.4 26.0 25.7 25.3 25.0 24.9 23.8 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 148 143 139 135 126 122 118 113 109 110 100 84 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -50.4 -51.2 -50.9 -51.1 -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 -52.1 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 8 6 6 6 6 4 4 2 2 700-500 MB RH 51 53 52 51 50 48 47 46 42 41 39 36 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 18 18 19 17 17 14 14 11 11 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 30 34 24 6 7 2 7 8 0 -4 -14 -26 -23 200 MB DIV 15 35 27 16 39 -24 -24 -13 15 17 39 8 -12 700-850 TADV -11 -15 -9 -9 -8 -1 0 -1 -2 -3 0 -1 1 LAND (KM) 475 505 540 561 583 662 768 779 758 750 775 785 800 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.6 15.8 16.2 16.6 16.9 16.9 17.7 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 105.4 106.1 106.8 107.5 108.2 109.8 111.2 112.2 112.8 113.3 113.8 115.1 116.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 4 3 2 5 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 42 36 27 19 15 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -9. -19. -30. -40. -49. -56. -62. -68. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 8. 12. 12. 11. 7. 2. 0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. 0. -4. -4. -9. -9. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 11. 9. 6. -12. -30. -51. -67. -82. -90.-103.-114. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012011 ADRIAN 06/10/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 30.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012011 ADRIAN 06/10/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##