* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ADRIAN EP012011 06/10/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 123 123 121 112 97 78 60 42 33 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 120 123 123 121 112 97 78 60 42 33 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 120 120 116 109 102 87 72 58 47 38 32 27 22 SHEAR (KT) 5 3 1 7 6 7 15 15 13 6 6 14 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 10 8 6 10 4 2 5 1 2 3 1 1 SHEAR DIR 70 123 351 60 137 236 295 305 298 316 208 185 182 SST (C) 28.4 27.9 27.4 27.0 26.6 26.0 25.6 25.4 25.2 24.7 23.8 22.9 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 142 137 133 128 122 117 114 112 108 99 90 81 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.6 -51.2 -50.6 -51.1 -51.0 -51.3 -51.2 -51.5 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 7 6 6 5 5 3 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 53 51 49 47 44 49 43 47 41 43 39 36 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 18 19 15 17 16 15 12 14 10 8 5 850 MB ENV VOR 36 27 6 7 12 0 2 0 -14 -13 -31 -31 -40 200 MB DIV 18 26 20 6 -20 -44 -21 -1 5 32 29 10 -3 700-850 TADV -15 -12 -9 -9 -4 0 -3 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 0 LAND (KM) 486 519 538 568 606 691 752 743 746 741 755 784 816 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.6 16.8 17.2 17.8 18.5 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 106.1 106.9 107.6 108.3 109.0 110.4 111.6 112.4 113.0 113.7 114.8 115.9 117.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 7 5 3 4 5 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 33 22 13 12 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -8. -12. -23. -34. -44. -53. -60. -66. -72. -78. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -4. -5. -9. -7. -13. -16. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 1. -8. -23. -42. -60. -78. -87.-103.-116.-128. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012011 ADRIAN 06/10/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012011 ADRIAN 06/10/11 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##