* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ADRIAN EP012011 06/10/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 116 110 102 94 75 60 41 29 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 120 116 110 102 94 75 60 41 29 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 120 114 106 97 89 73 60 48 38 30 25 20 15 SHEAR (KT) 5 3 6 4 7 9 21 21 13 5 11 17 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 10 16 7 6 1 4 2 4 5 6 3 SHEAR DIR 16 232 128 141 213 232 287 301 296 245 214 204 189 SST (C) 27.6 27.0 26.6 26.3 26.0 25.7 25.3 25.0 24.5 23.7 22.9 22.1 21.5 POT. INT. (KT) 140 133 129 126 122 119 114 110 105 98 90 81 74 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -50.9 -50.9 -51.2 -51.1 -50.7 -51.3 -51.3 -51.5 -51.1 -51.4 -51.7 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 5 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 49 47 45 45 45 45 41 39 41 38 36 31 28 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 21 20 19 19 17 19 17 16 14 11 9 6 850 MB ENV VOR 25 3 4 6 -2 6 7 -1 -8 -27 -34 -37 -51 200 MB DIV 12 17 15 -52 -34 -7 32 12 14 -3 -12 4 0 700-850 TADV -12 -13 -17 -8 -2 0 -1 -1 0 2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 516 543 583 639 700 770 762 760 755 776 833 860 906 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.4 15.6 15.8 15.9 16.2 16.6 16.9 17.3 17.8 18.4 18.9 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 107.2 108.0 108.8 109.7 110.5 111.9 112.9 113.5 114.1 115.1 116.5 117.7 118.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 6 4 3 5 6 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 14 11 8 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -16. -27. -38. -49. -58. -65. -72. -78. -84. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -3. -3. 0. 1. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -3. -6. -7. -9. -15. -16. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -10. -18. -26. -45. -60. -79. -91.-102.-117.-129.-142. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012011 ADRIAN 06/10/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 10.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012011 ADRIAN 06/10/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##