* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ADRIAN EP012011 06/10/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 104 96 89 83 65 50 33 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 110 104 96 89 83 65 50 33 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 110 103 95 86 79 65 53 42 34 27 22 17 DIS SHEAR (KT) 3 6 4 6 6 17 22 24 21 10 25 32 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 13 11 6 4 3 0 2 -1 5 0 0 3 SHEAR DIR 338 95 242 246 254 278 293 277 281 220 190 183 184 SST (C) 27.0 26.5 26.1 25.9 25.8 25.4 24.7 24.3 24.0 23.3 22.1 21.2 20.5 POT. INT. (KT) 134 128 124 121 120 116 108 102 99 94 82 71 64 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.8 -51.4 -51.4 -51.2 -51.1 -51.4 -51.1 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -52.2 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 47 45 40 41 43 37 34 34 33 28 24 20 21 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 15 18 19 16 16 13 12 10 8 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 3 1 2 -5 0 4 15 2 -4 -17 -5 -9 -4 200 MB DIV 16 29 -10 -43 -35 0 26 22 22 -3 -4 5 1 700-850 TADV -14 -17 -8 -2 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 1 1 LAND (KM) 550 602 665 714 766 765 762 764 766 790 847 860 883 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.6 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.5 17.1 17.4 17.6 18.1 18.9 19.7 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 108.1 109.1 110.0 110.7 111.4 112.7 113.9 114.4 114.7 115.6 117.5 118.6 119.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 7 6 5 2 3 7 8 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 11 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -14. -24. -34. -44. -53. -60. -66. -72. -78. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -3. -5. -6. -4. -5. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -14. -17. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -14. -21. -27. -45. -60. -77. -90.-101.-114.-128.-139. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012011 ADRIAN 06/10/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 51.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012011 ADRIAN 06/10/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##