* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ADRIAN EP012011 06/11/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 91 82 73 65 50 36 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 91 82 73 65 50 36 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 100 90 82 74 67 54 43 34 27 20 16 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 6 5 10 10 11 18 19 29 20 25 32 30 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 15 9 4 4 5 6 3 6 1 -2 -2 3 SHEAR DIR 84 232 241 241 259 279 263 258 226 197 188 186 186 SST (C) 26.7 26.3 26.0 25.8 25.6 25.3 24.6 23.9 22.9 22.2 21.5 20.9 20.5 POT. INT. (KT) 130 126 122 120 118 114 106 99 89 81 74 67 63 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 -52.8 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 44 40 41 43 42 38 35 37 31 28 25 23 21 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 17 19 18 17 17 15 15 13 10 7 5 2 850 MB ENV VOR 4 4 -8 -6 1 6 9 0 -7 -16 -28 -34 -34 200 MB DIV 33 2 -41 -35 0 30 67 33 21 -4 -2 -2 4 700-850 TADV -19 -12 -4 -1 -2 -2 0 2 2 0 -2 -3 -7 LAND (KM) 598 642 691 740 757 752 726 713 706 684 624 611 625 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.7 19.4 20.2 20.8 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 108.9 109.7 110.4 111.1 111.8 112.9 113.6 114.3 115.1 115.5 115.8 116.4 117.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 5 4 5 5 4 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -11. -19. -28. -37. -46. -54. -60. -65. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -11. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -9. -9. -7. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -10. -14. -19. -21. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -18. -27. -35. -50. -64. -78. -91.-106.-122.-135.-147. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012011 ADRIAN 06/11/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 49.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012011 ADRIAN 06/11/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##