* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942011 06/11/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 26 25 21 18 18 22 21 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 26 25 21 18 18 22 21 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 22 21 19 17 17 17 18 20 22 24 SHEAR (KT) 43 43 42 43 40 32 28 22 24 35 49 64 59 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 -2 1 4 0 2 1 -1 -2 3 5 5 8 SHEAR DIR 223 218 221 233 243 254 275 283 275 231 230 221 223 SST (C) 26.9 26.5 26.2 26.2 26.2 25.9 24.7 23.7 23.8 22.9 13.1 6.3 4.1 POT. INT. (KT) 122 119 116 116 116 113 104 98 100 95 69 65 64 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 107 103 102 101 99 92 89 91 86 67 64 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -53.0 -53.8 -53.9 -54.5 -53.9 -52.8 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 5 3 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 63 63 63 59 58 61 61 61 62 61 69 60 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 12 13 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 16 0 4 -5 -19 -10 12 30 58 136 121 120 147 200 MB DIV 12 17 16 51 57 19 30 33 48 67 64 56 37 700-850 TADV 12 10 6 7 7 10 12 38 15 32 53 41 -64 LAND (KM) 189 208 264 351 439 393 461 675 815 616 343 121 -52 LAT (DEG N) 25.8 27.0 28.1 29.1 30.0 31.6 32.7 33.9 35.8 39.1 42.8 46.0 48.4 LONG(DEG W) 78.3 78.0 77.7 77.1 76.4 74.7 72.1 68.8 64.8 61.0 58.5 56.8 54.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 12 11 11 11 12 13 17 20 21 19 16 14 HEAT CONTENT 3 1 4 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 719 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 18. 17. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 0. -7. -12. -17. -21. -27. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 3. 4. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -7. -7. -3. -4. -11. -18. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942011 INVEST 06/11/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 3.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942011 INVEST 06/11/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942011 INVEST 06/11/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)