* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ADRIAN EP012011 06/11/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 68 58 50 43 29 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 68 58 50 43 29 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 68 59 52 46 36 29 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 6 13 13 16 15 27 27 24 28 32 34 35 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 18 10 5 1 3 0 5 2 5 -3 -4 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 220 253 263 269 259 275 260 245 211 199 202 204 201 SST (C) 26.3 26.1 25.9 25.7 25.5 24.9 24.1 23.4 22.7 22.0 21.3 20.7 20.2 POT. INT. (KT) 126 123 121 119 116 110 101 94 86 79 72 65 60 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 41 41 42 43 40 37 40 36 35 31 26 25 23 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 16 16 15 14 14 11 8 5 3 1 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -16 -14 -7 -4 0 0 -21 -32 -44 -53 -53 -53 200 MB DIV 7 -43 -42 -4 19 52 59 21 15 1 2 5 10 700-850 TADV -11 -3 -2 0 -3 -4 0 0 0 3 1 0 -2 LAND (KM) 679 720 763 771 771 765 718 707 730 701 640 632 643 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.8 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.9 17.7 18.3 18.8 19.5 20.3 20.9 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 110.0 110.7 111.3 112.0 112.6 113.6 114.1 114.7 115.5 116.0 116.2 116.8 117.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -17. -24. -32. -37. -42. -47. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -11. -12. -14. -17. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE -7. -11. -13. -14. -12. -10. -8. -5. -5. -5. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -8. -11. -15. -18. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -12. -22. -30. -37. -51. -64. -79. -91.-105.-119.-130.-137. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012011 ADRIAN 06/11/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -30.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 47.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012011 ADRIAN 06/11/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##