* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ADRIAN EP012011 06/11/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 52 40 31 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 52 40 31 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 53 44 38 33 26 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 15 19 19 22 26 33 25 25 24 28 32 33 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 2 3 2 0 7 1 0 -3 -3 2 1 SHEAR DIR 236 248 242 255 262 279 258 237 209 208 205 203 210 SST (C) 26.1 25.9 25.6 25.3 25.0 24.3 23.7 22.8 22.1 21.4 21.0 20.6 20.4 POT. INT. (KT) 124 122 118 115 111 103 97 88 80 73 68 65 62 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 41 42 41 38 38 31 34 31 30 26 23 23 21 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 14 14 15 14 11 11 8 6 4 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -4 2 6 9 9 0 -8 -19 -37 -42 -36 -23 200 MB DIV -35 -34 9 8 25 58 56 0 -9 -17 -12 -10 2 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -2 -1 0 -1 3 1 0 -1 -5 -5 LAND (KM) 765 797 796 802 815 807 798 785 757 743 776 825 888 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.6 17.2 17.8 18.6 19.2 19.8 20.1 20.3 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 111.1 111.9 112.7 113.4 114.0 114.8 115.4 116.0 116.5 117.1 117.9 118.7 119.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -11. -17. -23. -28. -31. -36. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. -18. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE -8. -13. -16. -16. -15. -14. -11. -9. -8. -8. -6. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -6. -6. -10. -12. -16. -17. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -6. -4. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -13. -25. -34. -42. -54. -67. -75. -85. -93.-104.-112.-119. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012011 ADRIAN 06/11/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -35.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 45.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012011 ADRIAN 06/11/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##