* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ADRIAN EP012011 06/12/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 30 26 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 30 26 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 30 26 23 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 16 17 25 24 20 25 33 43 46 38 35 33 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 0 1 2 2 1 -6 -6 -6 -4 -1 N/A SHEAR DIR 225 249 269 277 270 226 215 208 209 219 221 227 N/A SST (C) 25.3 24.9 24.6 24.4 24.2 23.1 21.6 20.6 20.0 19.8 19.7 20.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 111 107 104 103 92 77 66 59 58 59 61 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -54.0 -54.5 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A 700-500 MB RH 36 35 32 33 31 33 28 25 23 21 19 19 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 8 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 2 4 5 6 -1 -5 -5 -18 -15 -7 -24 N/A 200 MB DIV -21 5 22 38 44 19 12 -23 -17 -22 -10 -3 N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -1 0 1 4 6 5 3 -1 -6 -4 N/A LAND (KM) 904 908 919 934 951 942 899 924 982 1011 1031 1206 N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.3 16.6 16.8 17.0 17.9 19.2 20.2 20.9 21.3 21.7 20.9 N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.4 115.1 115.7 116.2 116.6 117.6 118.6 119.8 121.1 122.0 122.7 124.2 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 5 6 7 8 8 6 4 5 8 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 694 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -11. -13. -14. -17. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -10. -17. -23. -26. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -12. -17. -29. -45. -63. -78. -88. -96.-101.-103. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012011 ADRIAN 06/12/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 43.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012011 ADRIAN 06/12/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##