* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922011 06/16/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 39 49 57 61 64 67 64 58 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 39 49 57 61 64 67 64 58 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 26 30 35 41 46 50 50 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 14 14 11 15 16 21 20 18 26 29 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -3 0 1 1 -1 0 1 -1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 55 40 27 41 43 54 70 80 93 82 89 90 95 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.3 28.3 27.3 27.0 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 156 159 159 160 161 163 164 163 159 148 137 132 132 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -51.8 -51.3 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 8 7 8 7 6 4 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 83 85 80 79 76 74 70 70 69 69 67 67 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 10 9 11 11 12 12 13 16 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 71 75 71 73 77 84 92 99 98 108 106 109 93 200 MB DIV 44 56 67 43 47 55 98 89 70 82 74 48 22 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -3 -10 -5 -11 -12 -11 -3 LAND (KM) 201 197 202 233 266 234 269 356 437 536 640 761 863 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.4 13.6 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.6 14.9 14.9 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 91.9 92.6 93.2 93.9 94.6 96.4 98.8 101.5 104.2 106.6 108.8 110.4 111.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 7 7 8 10 13 13 12 11 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 33 34 35 40 44 42 61 45 15 18 18 16 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 15. 24. 32. 37. 40. 42. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 11. 10. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 19. 29. 37. 41. 44. 47. 44. 38. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922011 INVEST 06/16/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922011 INVEST 06/16/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##