* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922011 06/17/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 26 30 38 48 54 60 62 63 60 56 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 26 30 38 48 54 60 62 63 60 56 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 22 25 29 34 38 44 49 52 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 17 17 14 15 13 16 21 18 12 19 26 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 -3 1 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 65 56 47 49 55 80 77 60 76 87 86 80 82 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.4 28.8 28.0 27.6 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 156 156 157 157 159 159 159 151 142 137 133 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.6 -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -52.2 -52.7 -51.7 -52.2 -51.1 -52.1 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 8 6 7 5 6 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 86 83 82 79 79 78 76 77 76 74 73 69 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 10 10 10 10 12 12 13 13 14 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 80 75 80 84 87 93 94 84 81 83 88 78 69 200 MB DIV 60 78 52 29 39 69 113 105 113 104 129 84 103 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 -2 -1 -5 -7 -8 -6 -5 -5 -6 LAND (KM) 376 394 416 416 400 428 459 520 560 597 625 625 605 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.8 11.9 12.0 12.1 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.3 13.8 14.3 14.7 15.0 LONG(DEG W) 94.1 94.6 95.0 95.6 96.2 98.1 100.4 102.7 104.7 106.4 107.6 108.3 108.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 6 8 10 11 10 10 7 5 3 1 HEAT CONTENT 15 21 26 13 17 45 47 27 42 44 30 23 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 443 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 15. 23. 31. 36. 39. 41. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 10. 18. 28. 34. 40. 42. 43. 40. 36. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922011 INVEST 06/17/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922011 INVEST 06/17/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##