* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922011 06/17/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 29 39 48 57 59 59 57 59 55 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 29 39 48 57 59 59 57 59 55 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 26 31 37 43 48 51 53 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 18 19 15 19 17 15 17 22 18 22 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 -3 2 1 -3 -1 -2 0 -2 -7 SHEAR DIR 36 32 44 57 62 78 60 68 87 103 88 86 93 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.1 28.2 27.6 27.4 27.4 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 160 161 161 162 161 156 145 138 135 134 139 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.3 -52.9 -51.9 -52.7 -51.9 -52.4 -51.7 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 7 7 6 8 6 5 4 4 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 83 80 77 76 77 72 73 73 71 69 68 64 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 9 10 12 11 11 9 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 76 83 92 89 92 93 82 83 86 85 86 84 54 200 MB DIV 56 32 28 30 49 88 88 95 65 91 68 88 70 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -3 0 -3 -7 -7 -6 -2 -2 -2 0 LAND (KM) 361 360 322 321 328 378 448 493 571 625 685 730 779 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.6 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.3 13.7 14.2 14.5 14.7 14.7 14.5 14.0 LONG(DEG W) 94.7 95.4 96.1 97.1 98.0 100.4 102.9 105.2 107.0 108.3 109.2 109.6 109.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 10 12 12 10 8 5 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 34 34 35 42 53 54 15 40 31 23 19 22 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 15. 24. 31. 35. 38. 40. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 3. 3. 1. 4. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 9. 19. 28. 37. 39. 39. 37. 39. 35. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922011 INVEST 06/17/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922011 INVEST 06/17/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##