* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922011 06/17/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 41 51 61 67 70 67 66 58 53 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 41 51 61 67 70 67 66 58 53 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 35 42 50 60 69 72 71 65 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 14 13 11 15 13 15 17 18 16 20 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 -1 0 1 2 1 4 3 1 1 5 SHEAR DIR 36 40 46 44 57 74 95 97 120 97 85 98 107 SST (C) 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.1 30.1 29.6 29.1 28.4 27.1 26.0 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 157 160 161 163 165 167 166 161 155 147 133 122 113 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -51.8 -51.9 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 6 7 8 7 6 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 81 79 77 76 71 74 66 67 63 64 61 62 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 9 10 10 11 10 11 10 10 7 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 83 84 80 83 78 90 81 107 105 109 85 81 64 200 MB DIV 43 33 39 75 64 83 74 94 87 83 73 39 38 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -1 1 -5 -4 5 LAND (KM) 244 261 281 231 180 137 128 133 133 176 246 353 485 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.9 13.3 13.7 14.1 14.9 15.9 16.8 17.4 17.8 18.0 17.8 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 93.3 94.0 94.7 95.6 96.5 98.6 100.7 102.5 104.2 105.5 106.8 107.9 109.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 10 10 11 10 9 8 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 32 39 44 49 55 60 50 48 36 23 7 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 31. 35. 37. 38. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 3. 1. 2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 26. 37. 42. 45. 42. 41. 33. 28. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922011 INVEST 06/17/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922011 INVEST 06/17/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##