* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922011 06/18/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 39 52 58 62 59 52 45 40 36 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 39 52 58 62 59 52 45 40 36 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 44 50 52 49 45 40 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 8 11 11 14 21 19 17 14 17 21 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 1 0 0 1 2 0 2 3 1 0 SHEAR DIR 68 63 69 83 91 86 114 107 96 114 87 111 107 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.3 28.5 26.8 25.2 24.6 24.6 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 165 166 166 165 158 149 131 114 108 107 113 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -51.7 -52.2 -51.1 -52.0 -51.0 -51.7 -51.0 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 8 7 6 9 7 7 4 3 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 81 77 77 78 75 73 67 66 68 62 62 57 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 13 12 12 10 7 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 85 86 96 88 77 85 89 101 73 76 76 60 58 200 MB DIV 67 67 63 80 79 115 131 124 94 84 74 54 -7 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 2 -1 -6 -7 4 3 LAND (KM) 343 267 222 182 163 139 114 162 259 404 562 601 697 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.3 13.8 14.4 14.9 16.1 17.2 17.9 18.2 18.1 17.8 17.7 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 95.0 96.0 97.0 98.1 99.2 101.4 103.5 105.4 107.1 108.7 110.3 111.6 112.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 12 12 12 12 11 9 8 8 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 39 43 50 59 60 48 44 23 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 15. 23. 29. 31. 32. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 4. 4. 1. -1. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 27. 33. 37. 34. 27. 20. 15. 11. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922011 INVEST 06/18/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922011 INVEST 06/18/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##