* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922011 06/18/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 43 55 61 63 55 46 43 39 36 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 43 55 61 63 55 46 43 39 36 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 41 47 51 53 53 50 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 13 16 17 15 18 22 19 18 19 13 13 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 1 0 0 -1 -3 -2 4 0 3 0 6 SHEAR DIR 62 59 76 79 83 74 89 82 86 97 91 113 156 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.2 28.8 28.4 27.8 26.8 25.7 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 160 161 160 159 156 151 146 140 130 118 106 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.2 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 80 80 82 79 78 81 77 77 72 72 72 70 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 11 12 14 13 11 5 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 97 106 94 74 67 60 67 72 67 66 47 60 47 200 MB DIV 65 98 104 94 110 144 168 170 128 108 33 51 1 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -1 -2 -2 -5 -8 -8 -9 0 -2 -4 -6 LAND (KM) 368 365 371 384 399 384 322 271 235 227 278 333 383 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 44 51 60 57 48 47 51 36 26 19 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 14. 22. 29. 32. 34. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 4. 2. -5. -9. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 18. 30. 36. 38. 30. 21. 18. 14. 11. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922011 INVEST 06/18/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 52.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922011 INVEST 06/18/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##