* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922011 06/19/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 36 42 51 58 61 55 49 44 40 36 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 36 42 51 58 61 55 49 44 40 36 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 35 40 44 47 48 46 43 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 20 16 11 23 14 17 18 10 13 12 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 -1 0 2 0 0 0 0 4 4 2 7 SHEAR DIR 60 68 77 90 76 84 95 84 94 99 94 139 142 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.5 29.1 28.7 27.8 26.6 25.6 24.7 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 160 161 161 159 155 150 141 127 117 108 98 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -51.7 -52.4 -51.2 -51.6 -50.7 -51.4 -50.9 -51.6 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 7 8 7 7 6 6 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 80 81 79 77 78 76 74 71 69 70 72 68 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 13 14 14 14 13 9 7 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 93 88 69 62 60 60 84 89 77 65 63 52 60 200 MB DIV 91 94 78 105 128 138 150 139 125 68 48 14 -1 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -2 -1 -1 1 -2 -4 -4 -3 -3 -2 0 LAND (KM) 385 378 391 370 350 301 231 199 191 263 363 437 434 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 47 58 58 50 48 55 45 27 18 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 14. 22. 28. 31. 32. 33. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -14. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. -1. -3. -4. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 17. 26. 33. 36. 30. 24. 19. 15. 11. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922011 INVEST 06/19/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 52.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922011 INVEST 06/19/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##