* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922011 06/19/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 36 42 53 62 63 56 51 45 38 33 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 36 42 53 62 63 56 51 45 38 33 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 35 41 46 49 48 44 38 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 18 11 14 15 11 21 17 11 10 6 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -2 1 6 0 0 2 1 8 11 7 11 SHEAR DIR 60 70 87 78 73 95 81 99 105 103 115 166 134 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.0 28.4 27.2 25.9 24.5 23.6 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 160 161 160 158 153 147 134 121 106 97 94 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -51.7 -52.2 -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.1 -51.2 -51.0 -51.3 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 8 7 8 6 6 4 4 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 80 78 76 77 77 71 74 66 71 68 64 60 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 12 13 14 15 14 11 11 10 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 79 67 60 57 55 52 74 77 74 62 73 49 68 200 MB DIV 69 81 106 137 147 151 134 160 144 46 40 0 -3 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -2 -2 0 -1 -5 -14 -5 -5 -11 -9 0 LAND (KM) 374 373 375 356 336 279 209 221 252 322 402 424 457 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 59 59 50 47 55 52 39 25 10 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 14. 22. 28. 31. 31. 31. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -14. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 6. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 17. 28. 37. 38. 31. 26. 20. 13. 8. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922011 INVEST 06/19/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 54.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 108.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922011 INVEST 06/19/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##