* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO EP022011 06/19/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 45 51 61 69 64 55 48 42 36 31 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 45 51 61 69 64 55 48 42 36 31 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 42 49 55 60 60 55 46 38 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 19 15 17 19 12 13 25 16 19 15 16 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 4 0 0 0 0 6 7 2 3 3 SHEAR DIR 78 74 73 81 86 91 100 112 142 122 141 136 141 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.0 28.2 26.7 24.9 23.4 23.0 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 162 163 161 158 154 145 130 111 96 92 88 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -51.7 -52.2 -52.5 -51.0 -52.1 -50.7 -51.3 -50.3 -50.7 -50.7 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 8 8 8 6 7 4 4 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 78 77 78 73 72 71 70 67 63 62 56 43 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 13 14 14 15 10 6 6 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 63 60 55 56 52 79 90 92 88 81 54 52 55 200 MB DIV 86 99 138 134 133 134 133 138 60 24 -9 -2 -20 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -1 2 0 3 -2 -8 1 3 0 3 1 LAND (KM) 328 314 299 259 222 139 122 115 192 322 379 435 545 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 64 56 49 51 50 45 31 26 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 21. 26. 27. 26. 25. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 1. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 21. 31. 39. 34. 25. 18. 12. 6. 1. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022011 TWO 06/19/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 54.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 118.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 3.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022011 TWO 06/19/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##