* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BEATRIZ EP022011 06/19/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 46 51 56 65 67 63 56 48 40 31 24 V (KT) LAND 35 40 46 51 56 65 67 63 56 48 40 31 24 V (KT) LGE mod 35 40 44 49 53 61 67 69 65 55 43 33 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 20 18 16 10 16 16 15 9 7 15 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 0 0 0 0 2 0 7 13 13 9 9 SHEAR DIR 60 66 76 101 108 104 127 118 142 152 186 179 198 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.3 28.7 27.4 25.5 23.5 22.2 22.1 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 161 160 159 157 151 137 117 97 83 82 82 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.7 -52.2 -52.4 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -51.1 -51.2 -51.0 -51.1 -51.0 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 8 7 7 5 4 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 77 74 75 72 68 62 62 59 54 42 39 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 51 57 60 71 101 100 100 79 66 33 47 53 200 MB DIV 95 121 130 144 154 93 106 99 42 8 -9 -6 -12 700-850 TADV -8 -7 -3 0 0 -1 -5 -2 1 -6 -4 5 0 LAND (KM) 310 283 256 220 167 69 30 127 272 333 334 455 610 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.7 15.2 15.9 16.5 17.9 19.1 19.6 19.7 19.9 20.4 20.4 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 100.7 101.4 102.0 102.5 102.9 103.9 105.1 106.6 108.2 109.9 111.8 113.5 115.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 9 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 50 50 52 51 47 41 27 13 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 22. 22. 20. 17. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -14. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 16. 21. 30. 32. 28. 21. 13. 5. -4. -11. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022011 BEATRIZ 06/19/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 128.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022011 BEATRIZ 06/19/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##