* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BEATRIZ EP022011 06/20/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 51 55 60 66 67 56 48 39 31 23 16 V (KT) LAND 40 45 51 55 60 66 67 56 48 39 31 23 16 V (KT) LGE mod 40 45 49 53 57 63 66 65 57 45 35 27 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 18 17 14 11 17 15 11 8 7 9 11 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 1 1 0 1 2 0 15 12 10 9 4 SHEAR DIR 73 77 96 108 99 107 113 122 139 202 182 183 166 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.1 26.1 23.8 22.7 22.8 22.5 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 159 158 157 154 145 124 100 88 89 86 80 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -51.1 -52.0 -50.8 -51.5 -50.9 -51.2 -51.2 -51.4 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 8 6 8 4 4 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 78 74 73 69 67 67 65 56 55 46 38 38 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 11 9 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 54 57 68 87 101 98 77 67 41 45 55 57 200 MB DIV 106 114 134 137 147 107 144 69 15 -24 -17 -20 -18 700-850 TADV -8 -6 -1 -1 0 -1 -5 -1 -1 0 3 6 5 LAND (KM) 304 271 250 187 138 93 107 222 335 363 456 570 658 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.2 15.7 16.4 17.0 18.2 19.1 19.7 19.9 19.9 19.8 19.8 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 101.7 102.2 102.7 103.2 103.6 104.6 106.0 107.7 109.6 111.4 112.9 114.4 115.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 8 8 7 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 52 54 51 46 44 33 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 457 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 17. 15. 13. 10. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 15. 20. 26. 27. 16. 8. -1. -9. -17. -24. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022011 BEATRIZ 06/20/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 127.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 28% is 5.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 28% is 8.7 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022011 BEATRIZ 06/20/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##