* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BEATRIZ EP022011 06/20/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 61 66 71 75 72 64 55 45 35 26 18 V (KT) LAND 50 56 61 66 71 75 72 64 55 45 35 26 18 V (KT) LGE mod 50 56 62 66 70 75 77 76 67 53 40 31 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 21 16 13 12 16 14 6 9 11 15 12 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 0 0 3 2 9 16 6 9 6 5 SHEAR DIR 78 95 100 111 99 112 99 138 160 204 188 197 178 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.0 28.5 27.2 24.5 22.4 22.5 22.0 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 157 157 156 153 148 135 108 86 87 82 74 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.1 -51.3 -51.7 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 9 7 7 6 5 3 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 73 73 72 65 68 65 66 61 57 43 36 31 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 10 10 10 10 7 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 62 68 88 93 104 110 85 75 37 48 50 62 200 MB DIV 102 117 135 148 132 116 82 78 12 -31 -10 -9 -25 700-850 TADV -8 -5 -2 0 -1 0 -4 -7 -5 -6 2 0 5 LAND (KM) 252 227 169 123 88 54 30 129 306 306 432 576 694 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 16.0 16.5 17.1 17.7 18.6 19.5 20.1 20.3 20.3 20.1 20.2 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 102.3 102.7 103.1 103.5 103.9 104.6 105.4 106.9 109.0 111.0 112.9 114.9 117.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 6 7 9 9 9 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 52 49 46 45 41 37 21 7 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 13. 10. 6. 3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -3. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 22. 14. 5. -5. -15. -24. -32. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022011 BEATRIZ 06/20/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 126.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022011 BEATRIZ 06/20/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##