* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BEATRIZ EP022011 06/20/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 67 72 75 80 72 62 52 41 30 21 DIS V (KT) LAND 55 61 67 72 75 80 72 62 52 41 30 21 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 61 66 70 74 78 78 74 62 48 37 28 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 14 12 10 11 14 14 13 9 12 13 12 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 0 2 2 0 9 10 10 6 4 0 SHEAR DIR 90 94 108 105 113 100 123 144 217 175 197 189 185 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.5 28.4 26.5 24.0 22.7 22.8 22.4 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 157 158 159 158 147 128 102 88 89 86 75 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.1 -51.5 -51.8 -52.1 -51.0 -52.0 -51.0 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 7 7 8 5 5 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 73 71 66 69 69 66 62 60 52 45 44 36 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 9 9 10 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 66 81 87 89 104 82 81 55 46 53 55 64 200 MB DIV 98 98 116 123 92 95 85 31 0 -13 -15 -23 -30 700-850 TADV -5 -2 -1 -1 0 -1 -5 -1 -6 -5 0 0 3 LAND (KM) 222 175 142 109 84 39 131 256 300 342 477 625 746 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.5 16.9 17.5 18.0 19.0 19.4 19.9 20.2 20.2 19.9 19.9 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 102.7 103.1 103.5 103.9 104.2 105.1 106.5 108.1 109.9 111.6 113.3 115.3 117.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 49 46 45 41 37 33 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 466 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 10. 6. 2. -2. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -5. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 17. 20. 25. 17. 7. -3. -14. -25. -34. -42. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022011 BEATRIZ 06/20/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 54% is 4.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 46% is 5.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 40% is 7.2 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 40% is 14.4 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022011 BEATRIZ 06/20/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##