* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BEATRIZ EP022011 06/20/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 71 75 77 75 72 65 56 45 35 26 18 V (KT) LAND 60 65 71 75 77 75 72 65 56 45 35 26 18 V (KT) LGE mod 60 65 69 72 75 78 77 70 58 47 37 29 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 12 12 13 16 6 6 5 5 9 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 0 -1 3 1 9 9 9 11 7 8 3 SHEAR DIR 93 102 96 98 105 131 161 154 230 172 233 196 172 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.2 27.8 25.5 23.6 22.9 22.3 22.0 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 159 160 159 156 141 117 98 91 84 82 75 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.3 -51.7 -52.1 -51.2 -51.3 -51.2 -50.8 -51.1 -51.1 -51.4 -51.1 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 7 8 6 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 71 67 70 69 67 69 64 61 50 44 39 38 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 10 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 81 87 88 93 105 76 71 47 57 49 59 72 200 MB DIV 102 117 132 121 145 71 25 -1 1 4 -7 -37 -14 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -3 -3 -5 -1 -7 -12 -14 -6 -2 5 3 LAND (KM) 155 110 81 68 58 54 152 324 350 424 519 651 837 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.1 18.5 19.4 20.0 20.1 19.8 19.8 20.2 20.1 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 102.9 103.3 103.6 104.1 104.5 105.6 107.1 108.8 110.6 112.4 114.1 116.1 118.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 47 45 45 41 39 27 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 8. 5. 1. -4. -8. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 15. 17. 15. 12. 5. -4. -15. -25. -34. -42. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022011 BEATRIZ 06/20/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 123.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 50% is 4.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 45% is 5.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 36% is 6.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 36% is 15.4 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022011 BEATRIZ 06/20/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##